Campaigning is for chumps
Trump is avoiding Iowa like Hillary avoided Wisconsin
If I had to sum up in two words how to describe the Trump campaign's approach to the primaries, it would be:
Screw that!
Why put in the effort to campaign when you can spend your days on the golf course and your nights on Truth Social while pretending you're a wildly popular incumbent?
On Friday, Trump skipped the Family Leadership Summit in Iowa, allegedly due to a "scheduling conflict."
Hey, at least he didn't blame it on a tornado warning.
The event featured former Fox News host Tucker Carlson grilling the leading 2024 Republican primary candidates in one-on-one interviews.
It was a terrific opportunity for Iowa evangelicals – an influential group in Iowa politics – to sample the wares of some of the GOP contenders. And because it was Tucker Carlson and not some mealy-mouth sycophant or combative Democrat media hack, the questions were probing and the answers revealing.
Some suggested that Trump avoided the summit out of fear that Carlson might ask him some difficult questions rather than toss him softballs like Trump throne-sniffer Sean Hannity. But I don't think it was fear that prompted Trump to skip the Family Leadership Summit. It was arrogance.
I think Trump truly does believe that campaigning is for chumps, or as the odious Kari Lake told TheBlaze TV, the B-Team.
Imagine Kari Lake describing anyone else as the B-Team. If Ron DeSantis or Tim Scott belongs to the B-Team, what would that make someone who loses to a terrible candidate like Katie Hobbs? The Z-Team?
But Lake isn’t the only one on Team Trump to think that way. The guy at the top does as well.
Donald Trump skipped the summit because it was beneath him.
Campaigning at all is beneath him.
He looked at the national primary polls conducted six months before a single voter casts a ballot and declared himself the nominee.
Hillary made the same mistake in 2007.
In a November 2007 Gallup national primary poll, Hillary enjoyed a 27-point lead over her nearest opponent, the eventual nominee Barack Obama, 48% to 21%.
She was a fait accompli, a done deal, the presumptive nominee.
Likewise, Trump doesn't think he needs to participate in events like the Family Leadership Summit or even the primary debates because he already has the nomination in the bag.
Six months before a single vote is cast, Trump is spiking the football and running off the field like he's Tom Brady.
One Trump supporter, OAN contributor Elad Hakim, pretty much confirmed Team Trump's attitude toward the 2024 Republican primary in a tweet last week:
Folks, Trump does not need to debate DeSantis or any other R candidate. Trump is up big. Americans know where he stands. As I have previously stated, a pro-level star need not practice/play against a rookie when he has nothing to gain and runs the risk of injury.
When you think about it, Hillary was also the "pro-level star" and Barack Obama was the "rookie." How'd that work out?
But who's the rookie in 2024?
Is it someone like Ron DeSantis, who has won 5 different elections, the latest in a 20-point landslide? Or is it Donald Trump, who won a single election in 2016 by the skin of his teeth against the most detested politician in the country only to lose reelection to a near-octogenarian who hid in his basement?
And what happened after Trump's only win?
He went on to lose the House in 2018 and the Senate in 2020. Then he helped expand the Senate Democrat majority in 2022 while pissing all over what could have been a massive Red Wave in the House.
He's not a “pro-level star” of anything except maybe getting Democrats elected.
But what Elad Hakim said does give us a peek into Donald Trump's thinking.
Trump finds it insulting to be considered just another Republican candidate in the 2024 primaries.
Despite not winning an election for nearly 8 years, Trump believes that he should be treated like an incumbent. And everybody knows that only bush-league nobodies like Joe Walsh challenge an incumbent.
Trump believes that treating the other candidates with disdain will make his opponents seem like inconsequential nobodies.
But by turning up his nose at retail campaigning, Trump isn't showing disdain for his opponents. He's showing disdain for Republican voters.
We're not worth his time or effort.
This is the problem with believing that you are owed the nomination.
Hillary fell into the same trap in 2016.
Because she believed she was owed the White House after Obama stole it from her in 2008, Hillary only did the bare minimum in 2016.
Remember that?
There would be days and weeks between Hillary's campaign events. While she didn't hole up in a basement like Biden, she did truncate her campaign schedule to the point where she didn't bother setting foot in Wisconsin.
Perhaps a candidate who isn't universally hated can skip Wisconsin without hurting her chances in the election. But as I said, Hillary Clinton was the most detested politician in America in 2016. She couldn't afford to show that kind of disregard for voters.
And now, here we are in 2023, and it is Donald Trump who is the most detested politician in America.
He can't afford to piss off Republican voters by treating them with indifference or outright disdain.
What's more, by avoiding events like the Family Leadership Summit or the primary debates, Trump is inadvertently giving voters a chance to see what life would be like without him.
Without Trump sucking all the oxygen out of the room, primary voters may discover that there is someone better positioned to win back the White House in 2024.
After Friday's summit, TheBlaze TV's Steve Deace tweeted this:
Just left VIP dinner at #FLS23. One of the things I heard a lot was how much Trump wasn't missed. Trump knows as a master marketer you don't ever let people think they can get by without you/your product.
But Trump has been giving voters plenty of chances to experience the primary process without him.
The Family Leadership Summit was the second traditional pre-caucus event Trump skipped in Iowa, the first was Senator Joni Ernst's Roast and Ride last month.
Trump refused to attend the Roast and Ride, offering instead to provide a pre-recorded video message.
So Ernst's team spent the money to rent large screens to accommodate the demanding "pro-level star," only for Trump not to bother sending a video message, according to the New York Times.
On top of that, Ernst and her team also planned to raffle off a motorcycle helmet autographed by all of the GOP candidates. But when the helmet was sent to Trump, rather than just sign his name, Trump arrogantly included the numbers "45" (as in 45th president) and "47" (as in the next president). According to the New York Times, Ernst's team opted not to raffle off the helmet.
Perhaps a candidate who isn't universally hated can display this level of arrogance and entitlement without hurting his chances in the primary. But this early in the process, the guy who considers himself the incumbent is already having a hard time breaking 50% support among Republicans.
Thumbing his nose at Republican voters by refusing to put in the work to win them over will only put Trump in a difficult position once the primary season begins in earnest and more voters are paying attention.
Is that to say he can't secure the GOP nomination?
No. He still might end up as the nominee, especially if the over 50% of Republican voters who don’t support him are divided among a large field of candidates.
But going into the General Election, a Trump nomination will be about as successful as Hillary's was in 2016.